Modi's Russian Oil Dilemma: A Test of Faith and Strategy
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi finds himself trapped between the hammer of American tariffs and the anvil of his own people's needs. The world's third-largest oil importer has been buying discounted Russian crude at record levels, but a new US congressional bill threatens to impose tariffs of up to 100 per cent on such purchases. For a leader who has long danced between Washington and Moscow, this is a moment of reckoning.
Why India's Russian Oil Imports Have Become a Flashpoint
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, India has slashed its energy costs by buying Russian crude at discounted rates. These purchases now account for more than 40 per cent of India's total oil supplies. The savings have been counted in billions of dollars, but the strategic cost is mounting.
The new US legislation, which enjoys strong bipartisan support, takes what analysts call the most maximalist position possible in punishing India for its Russian oil buys. New Delhi has warned Washington that such a measure could damage bilateral relations and disrupt global energy markets.
The Political Headache for Modi at Home
Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party faces crucial elections in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, and Gujarat early next year. Any hike in fuel prices could prove politically toxic. The opposition is already urging Modi to adopt a tougher stance against American pressure.
Indian refiners have secured crude supplies for September and October that include Russian oil. Cutting these purchases now would either spike fuel prices or strain government finances, a double-edged sword for a leader who has built his reputation on economic growth and national pride.
US-India Relations at a Delicate Stage
The trade relationship between Washington and New Delhi has been turbulent under President Donald Trump. Tariffs of up to 50 per cent were imposed on Indian goods in August 2025, then rolled back in February in exchange for what Trump described as India's commitment to halt Russian oil purchases.
But New Delhi only briefly reduced purchases from Russia in early 2026. They have since jumped, especially after the supply shock that followed the US and Israeli attack on Iran.
Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington, says the legislation could not have come at a worse time for trade talks.
“The two sides are not far from the finish line, but getting there will require careful diplomacy.”
What This Means for the Muslim World and Beyond
For observers in Pakistan and across the Muslim world, this episode reveals the fragility of depending on Western goodwill. India has long sought to position itself as a strategic counterweight to China, yet it now finds itself squeezed by the very power that courted it for decades.
Indian analysts argue that purchases of Russian oil are not financing the Ukraine war but helping stabilise global supplies and keeping domestic prices in check.
“Tariffs of up to 100 per cent would punish Indian exporters and American consumers, disrupt trade and give the US president excessive power over major partners,” said Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative.
Can Modi Navigate This Tightrope?
Modi is expected to travel to the US for the G20 summit in December, where he could meet Trump on the sidelines. A breakthrough in trade talks remains possible, but the trust gap has widened.
India has already signed trade deals with Britain and the EU, and is looking to conclude talks with Canada by year's end. Yet the American market remains its largest, and losing it would be a severe blow.
For now, Modi must balance the needs of 1.4 billion people against the demands of a superpower. It is a test of strategic patience, economic wisdom, and political courage. The world watches to see whether India will bend to American pressure or chart its own course, as it has so often done in the past.
